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The forthcoming
visits of Defence Minister AK Antony and PM Dr Manmohan Singh
later in the year to Moscow will be watched with interest.
Putin is going to talk turkey about defence sales, while India
raises the issue of delays in supply of hardware and escalations
in price. The dollar has fallen badly. The Aircraft carrier
Gorshkov is delayed as the long cabling of the ship was bungled
and the sub contractor led the side down badly. Also supervision
was poor and the head of Sevmash Dockyard was sacked and a
Submarine builder has been appointed, but the carrier is delayed
to 2011.
Though
Indian Armed Forces are still locked in to the Russian net
for its military teeth, India's large $ 2 bill imports from
Israel have made huge in roads in to India's military with
good technology. . Israel has also made the best friends in
to India's military and agencies and are doing well and may
be USA is not objecting as the game will be larger to make
India dependent. Russia must be studying these developments,
as its economy is doing oil well and now arms sales are picking
up. A new strategic missile and a new submarine with longer
submerged capability have been developed. An Akula will be
supplied to India next year.
On the
first visit by a Russian leader to Indonesia in over 50 years,
Russian President Vladimir Putin met with President Susilo
Bambang Yudhoyono recently to witness the signing of a US$1
billion arms deal to upgrade Indonesia's defense capability.
Indonesia cannot pay, but does barter and Putin has grabbed
the opportunity.
The agreement
includes Indonesia's purchase of 20 Russian tanks, 22 helicopters
(17 passenger/transport and five assault) and two submarines,
with an option to buy more over the next 15 years. Ships are
already on order. Despite concerns that Russia is also aiming
to expand its military clout in Southeast Asia, such is the
fact. India can collaborate to assist Indonesia as it is friendly.
Defence Minsiter is long over due to visit Indonesia and sign
MOUs on SU-30s and BrahMos.
Indonesia's
military has to be modernized. Suffering under a weak economy,
Indonesia's capability to defend and secure its maritime borders
has been weakened by a lack of submarines and warships. The
military currently only operates two obsolete German submarines
purchased in the 1980s. The recent purchase of more sophisticated
and stealthy Kilo Class 636 diesel submarines will ensure
more effective naval patrolling of the country's 17,000-odd
islands. Modernization could increase Indonesia's naval standing
among its neighbors.
The Singapore Navy currently has four Swedish Challenger submarines
and plans to buy two more by 2016. Malaysian Navy has increased
its naval power by constructing two high-tech Scorpene Class
submarines in France.
As Putin
said during his Indonesian visit, "We agreed to develop
our cooperation in energy, mining, aviation and the telecommunication
sector." The two nations signed oil, gas and mining agreements
which, according to Mine and Energy Minister Purnomo Yusgiantoro,
are worth up to $8 billion. These deals will help revamp Indonesia's
aging oil and mining facilities.
Indonesian
state-owned mining company Aneka Tambang inked a $1.2 billion
deal with Russian United Company RUSAL for a project in Kalimantan.
The two companies are also exploring further possibilities
to expand their business into power station construction and
the smelting of aluminum.
Russian
oil giant LUKOIL and Indonesia's state-run Pertamina have
also agreed to a $1 billion project for a cooperative oil
and gas exploration. Both countries have also agreed to develop
aerospace technology.
Shortly
after Putin's visit, Frans Kaisiepo Airport in Papua was designated
a base for launching rockets carrying Russian satellites,
starting in 2010. Russia has also stated its interest in helping
Indonesia build its first nuclear power plant on Java by 2016.
It is perhaps not unimaginable that the annual trade of around
$680 million between the two countries could reach $1 billion
in the next few years. Russian tourists are flocking Bali.
The third
benefit from the visit is the credit offer from Russia, repayable
within 15 years, which will provide flexibility for Indonesia's
cash-strapped government. Russian military hardware is cheaper
than similar U.S.-made models and represents what presidential
spokesperson Dino Pati Djalal describes as a "generous
package." Indonesians are learning from India which has
moved on.
There
are also fewer "strings attached" with Russian the
arms sales. Defense Minister Juwono Sudarsono said, "Requirements
for purchasing arms from Western countries are complicated,
with preconditions attached, such as human rights, accountability,
not to mention licensing." This is a reference to Indonesia
not being allowed to use its British-supplied Scorpion tanks
during its conflict with separatist rebels in Aceh.
Finally,
Indonesia's relationships with Russia will help reduce its
dependence on the United States, once Indonesia's largest
arms supplier. In 2005, the U.S. lifted its arms embargo on
Indonesia, which was imposed in 1992 after the Indonesian
army killed hundreds of protesters in East Timor, but Muslim
South East Asia is unhappy with the US actions in the middle
east and opposition to the Kyoto protocol and if Indonesia
over collaborates with US it could see protests like India's
Communists have shown.
Despite
suspicions by the West that Russia is attempting to expand
its political influence in Southeast Asia, the various deals
between Indonesia and Russia should be looked to by India
well as there are benefits, both political and economic, to
India if we assist too. Indonesia needs to be cultivated as
Malaysia is not so keen on closer military ties with India.
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