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 India
is living in an age of rising expectations and a slew of opportunities
and a new investment climate has come about for a large section
of Indians with a booming stock market, cheaper dollar increasing
the Indians purchasing power and $ 270 bill FFE reserves and
net surpluses in the Government coffers. In 1991 our FFE was
$ 1 bill. India was broke and the Finance Minister said the
Coffers are empty, now he says they are filling. The Indian
defence establishment, India's service sector and technology
users are therefore looking forward to the Indo US 123 Nuclear
Agreement. That the gains will be immense need to be highlighted
as they out weigh any short comings but since they concern
the Strategic aspects of India's minimum credible nuclear
deterrent which is speculation, and nothing is in the public
domain, the debate has become emotive with out hard facts.
India's nuclear capability, its delivery, robustness and efficacy
needs to appreciated and studied like balance a sheet is.
This
is a very sensitive issue and Lord Meghnad Desai writing an
OP ED piece in TOI on 31st October on Family Politics naming
Rahul Gandhi as India's heir apparent has this to say, "
The fiasco with the nuclear deal shows that neither the avowed
goal of energy supplies nor 'the real one' of strategic security
alliance matters when it comes to family concerns of the ruling
party". No one is clear about India's minimum nuclear
deterrent and how many bombs India has and how robust they
are officially, Thye need to be made robust to be a credible
deterrent, as news emerges Pakistan had the termity to operationalise
its nuclear arsenal during the Kargil half war as per media
reports. Few know India's nuclear submarines will need enriched
uranium of at least 40% grade which is fissile material and
our current power plants are running low on uranium. Desai
acknowledges the 123 nuclear is more about India's strategic
needs, but as mentioned this cannot be debated in public.
Via 123 we can progress our own fissile material programmes
and the definition is given below.
In
2006, the US proposed a working paper in which it provided
definition of fissile material. As per the US definition:
'"Fissile material' means
(a)
Plutonium except plutonium whose isotopic composition includes
80 percent or greater plutonium-238.
(b)
Uranium containing a 20 percent or greater enrichment in
the isotopes uranium-233 or uranium-235, separately or in
combination; or
India has not declared its fissile materials stockpile or
the precise number of nuclear weapons required for its credible
minimum deterrence structure ever, even possibly to the Military
brass as an Inter Service Rivalry will commence. Only estimates
exist prepared by different non-official groups. They guesstimate
information about the Indian fissile materials stockpile.
All these assessments indicate that India has enough fissile
material stockpiles for the Indian policy of credible minimum
deterrence. For example, the 2007 report of the International
Panel on Fissile Materials estimate that India has about 50
nuclear weapons and stock of 0.2 metric ton of Highly Enriched
Uranium (HEU). How they say so is arguable because the efficacy
is not known but again guessed. Institute of Science and International
Security's 'Global Stocks of Nuclear Explosive Materials'
states India has "the estimate of the net military plutonium
inventory through 2003 had a median value of 25 kilograms
and 5th and 95th percentiles of 345 kilograms and 510 kilograms,
respectively. The increase in 2004 was thus about 20 kilograms
of plutonium.
Indians
are generally cynical about USA because of our past experience,
and because we have a vibrant democracy, are emotional by
nature the political parties in opposition have never been
known to look at a gift horse in the mouth, but now they must.
The Indian Navy led the Indo US closeness by independently
patrolling the Malacca Straits after 9/11 and it has paid
dividends. The Malabar exercises improved in dimensions and
the Air Force and Army followed. The MEA had no option but
to follow through and improve on the relationship. The India
US Defence framework signed by then Defence Minister Pranab
Mukerjee in Washington on 26th June 2005, was an essential
pre cursor to the Nuclear agreement that was signed by Prime
Minister Dr Manmohan Singh a few months later. The defence
frame work is one of the most open ended documents with just
one and a half pages containing 850 words of text and the
opening statement and the last para say it all. These are
reproduced.
"The
United States and India have entered a new era. We are transforming
our relationship to reflect our common principles and shared
national interests. As the world's two largest democracies,
the United States and India agree on the vital importance
of political and economic freedom, democratic institutions,
the rule of law, security, and opportunity around the world.
The leaders of our two countries are building a U.S.-India
strategic partnership in pursuit of these principles and interests".
And the last para states, "the Defense Policy Group and
its subgroups will rely upon this Framework for guidance on
the principles and objectives of the U.S.-India strategic
relationship, and will strive to achieve those objectives".
The document is advisory in nature for future dealings.
The
beauty of both the Defence and Nuclear agreements is they
do not bind India in any manner. It is the 123 agreement which
is still to be consummated , that will become operative for
India and only then will we know if India's strategic nuclear
interests are impacted in any way. No agreement or ship is
completely water tight. The Prime Minister has promised to
see the 123 agreement does not impinge on India's national
and strategic interests, but his body language says, "We
need it badly". He staked his job which Desai calls The
CEO job of Sonia Gandhi. Cynics in India doubted that the
US Congress would pass the nuclear bill to enable President
Bush to negotiate the 123 agreement as fast as it did, and
the Congress progressively removed many stringent clauses
that India had shown concern for, leaving a few clauses that
do seem intrusive on future nuclear testing and R and D by
India. The 123 agreement will apply only when it is consummated.
Yet all and sundry, especially the scientists whose freedom
and fiefdom may be curtailed when military and civil facilities
are to be separated, objected vociferously at first, but have
not been muted as some deal appears worked out. The US Congress
passed with over whelming majority, a commonly Legislation
referred to as the Hyde act in USA. The debaters say, the
Hyde Act will tie us down and that debate in India is essential,
as it helps decision makers to clear cob webs but the pros
of the deal must be weighed against cons to build support.
The
criticism is certainly needed as it will put pressure on the
US Administration to take note of India's concerns, but the
Hyde act does not spell a doomsday at all. The sun is shining
on India, and American investments are pouring in, like never
before, and Indians are investing in US firms like they buy
potatoes, though that is an exaggeration. But it conveys the
climate. For the time being the PM's assurance needs to be
taken seriously. In USA President Bush has his vulnerabilities
too, but much is at stake for him if the 123 agreement is
not reached. India's gains will then be fewer, and President
Bush's statement on Iraq could well apply to the still to
be signed 123 agreement, that "the days ahead will demand
more patience, sacrifice and resolve".
No
conference on stability and security in the Indian Ocean goes
with out the mention of maritime issues and much is expected
of the Indian Navy in this regard. Japan's out going Ambassador
Enoki stated Japan Depends On The Indian Navy for Its Energy
Security. A significant statement by conservative Japan. A
maritime cooperation document and Logistic Support agreement
with USA has been progressed by the navy but being objected
to by the left. The Indo Japan agreement signed by PMs Shinzo
Abe and Dr Manmohan Singh in Tokyo uniquely has three clauses
on maritime cooperation and exercises. The Indian Navy has
been swift off the mark, and has already made gains as it
is a nimble service. Many analysts who have followed the annual
advanced now USN-IN Malabar series of exercises which are
conducted in the open seas away from gaze of media, and the
Tsunami experience jokingly claim the relation between the
two navies is becoming interoperable and incestuous. This
is not a bad thing as the US Navy recognizes the capabilities
of the Indian Navy are many and positive, but it is the 123
Agreement that needs support and consumation. But the minimum
nuclear deterrent issue cannot be debated in the open. The
left needs to be taken in to confidence. See Photo Of Nuclear
Submarine which will form India's minimum nuclear deterrent
from the sea.
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