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 This
is good time to write on Pakistan and Afghanistan as no one
knows what the future will be like in Afghanistan and when
and if the US troops reduce in the AF-PAK area and stop drone
attacks. The military under Gen Pervez Kayani is claling the
shots Pakistan is not in turmoil and social life in Lahore
and Karachi is fair and there is enough stability to last
two years and USa would also love that. Anti India feelings
till it aids Afghanistan is strong and so it will continue
and IDU does not see any change of heart in that. LET and
Haqauni groups will not be touched by the Pakistan military
even if USA tries its best. IDU feels Iran is important as
it finances and arms Taliban even though Iran is Shia. Why
will take time to discuss.
Just
then Dennis Kux a former Ambassador in Pakistan gave a lecture
titled "Swiss solution" in Karachi few days ago
where he ` proposed for Afghanistan a unique solution to the
Afghan quagmire, and suggests that Afghanistan be made a "neutral"
or "non-aligned" state under the aegis of the United
Nations by 2015. India would love it but Pakistan will see
the UN gets hell. He said unless this is done, as soon as
western troops leave Afghan soil the country will slide into
civil war. "We can live with it. But for Pakistan it
will be disastrous. The turmoil will spill over across the
border". Describing the similarities between Switzerland
and Afghanistan, Kux said both seemingly disparate countries
etc etc . Lets see if there are any takers as ex US Ambassador
to India Blackwill wants to break up Pakistan for beter governance
and articles have been written titled Splitting Pakistan.
Now
James Farwell's wrtes, "The Pakistan Cauldron" which
is an insightful look into one of the most complex, highly
nuanced and complex countries in the world, Pakistan but he
ends with Musharraf so IDU adds a post script to his book..
The
three major characters discussed in this book worked within
this high pressure environment and played major roles in influencing,
directly and indirectly, movements within their country. They
also played a direct role in how Pakistan is perceived by
the rest of the world. Dr. Abdul Qadeer Kahn, General Pervez
Musharraf and Benazir Bhutto are analyzed and discussed in
a way unique to this author.
Farwell
first does a deep dive into the "curious case of A.Q.
Khan", who realizes and exploits the inherent drive within
the core belief of many in Pakistan to advance itself before
all others. He acquired sensitive dual-use items and used
them in a program designed to make nuclear weapons for Pakistan.
Expensive funding was assisted by illegally and deliberately
redirecting billions of dollars in aid from the United States.
A.Q. Khan became an inconvenient hero to the Pakistani people
after his success and then President Zia and others sought
to lessen his impact within a highly fractured Pakistan. They
succeeded in marginalizing Khan. The book then discusses a
number of theories how Khan and Musharraf were perceived within
a myriad of major issues and how players schemed and reacted.
The
rise and prominence of Benazir Bhutto was preceded by a story
of struggle and coping with adversity by her father, Zulfiqar
Ali Bhutto. Zulfiqar Bhutto took on the entrenched political
powers and the Pakistani Intelligence Service amidst threats,
kidnappings, false public accusations, deep corruption and
a tragically flawed society. In the end the elder Bhutto was
railroaded for murder and hung. These tragic events chiseled
the personality of Benazir Bhutto. Fired as Pakistani Prime
Minister during the United States distraction during Saddam
Hussein's invasion of Kuwait, Benazir sought to offset blatant
attempts by the military to topple her when she regained office.
She regained power again only to lose in another election,
followed by nine years of self-imposed exile. Benazir sought
to return to her beloved Pakistan, only to meet a tragic ending.
General
Pervez Musharraf rose to become the Pakistan Army's Chief
of Army Staff and was then deemed a threat to the political
leadership. Upon returning from a trip outside the country,
his plane was denied permission to land, causing Musharraf
to arrange a coup while still in the air. Through deceit,
sabotage, deception, and political insurgency, Musharraf successfully
used strategic communication to gain the support of the people
and remains in power today, despite an incredibly complicated
and consistently toxic atmosphere in enigmatic Pakistan.
Farwell
does an excellent job analyzing how information and communications
directly impact the outcome of a wide variety of situations.
He analyses different options and outcomes to powerful and
widely different situations encountered within Pakistan, with
the Taliban, with neighboring countries, as well as the United
States. Strategies and tactics used to communicate intentions
and ideas are judged, rated and gamed.
James
Farwell's expertise in strategic communication and politics
provides a unique perspective, his lens focuses the reader
to see these three main characters within Pakistan's constant
cultural struggles while coping with a strong religious underpinning,
where information and influence are used as weapons. I strongly
recommend this book to anyone working on issues regarding
Pakistan, strategic communication, politics or influence.
IDU
ENDS WITH
Robert
Gates, Mr Kux has said the US and Pakistan were in a "bad
marriage. Will it lead to divorce? No. Both need each other",
though there would be grumbling and anger. Pakistan knows
it has to last out till 2013 and will wait and watch the 2012
US Elections and hope USA with draws and till then USA will
not forsake Pakistan and will provide aid because of supplies
to Afghanistan via Pakistan as northern supply routes take
longer and are more expensive,
Long-term,
USA wants the Pakistan of Jinnah, not the Pakistan of Zia
and PM Manmohan is staking a lot for that to see Pakistan
as a source of stability. India has to note Pakistan has nuclear
weapons. In the extremely remote possibility there is an extremist
takeover of these weapons, it would be a nightmare scenario
for India and the entire world. But as Shekhar Gupta and all
agree India can do little to decide the fate of Afghanistan
but like a prodigal son it has to keep giving aid and as MEA
it is very appreciated as Afghans are doing the work and India
gives the money and there is no audit so every one is happy
like Raju of Satyam was. The share holders in India get screwed
but in India Pakistan Afghanistan it is the peoples of these
three countries which will get screwed.
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