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PM DR MANMOHAN SINGH MADE AN ERROR AT BALI EAS BY TELLING MEDIA IN ADVANCE HE IS TAKING ON PM WEIN BAO IN BALI ON THE SOUTH CHINA SEAS DISPUTE CHINESE DO NOT LIKE TO LOSE FACE
NEHRU MADE THE SAME MISTAKE IN 1962 BY SAYING "I HAVE TOLD GEN KAUL TO THROW THE CHINESE OUT"

IDU Report
        IDU Update (November 2011)

It is well known culture is important and Chinese do not like to lose face in public and can recoil if hurt. China has been asserting ownership over islands in the South China Seas, and showed its angst against India's attempts to co-operate with Viet Nam, when in July, India's LST INS Airavat was warned on radio, to keep off its seas whilst on passage off Viet Nam. India has strategic interests and investments in Viet Nam, has supplied military sparesfor Osa class boats and offered submarine training to the Viet Nam Navy, and has ongoing exploring contracts for energy needs of both countries in legitimate blocks leased by Viet Nam to India's ONGC Videsh Ltd(OVL). More recently OVL is set to explore in two more blocks 127 and 128 in in 110 Degrees East. Viet Nam has offered berthing facilities in Nha Trang which is in Cam Ran Bay.

It all began with former CNS telling us through an article 'What Ship Where Bound' that India (ONGC) should be careful about exploring in the South China Seas as he knew the area of block 127/128 was disputed and Viet Nam had made NO BOLD STATEMENT to say India should go ahead. USA has spoken about freedom of the seas, not exploration. India should be careful and not become a pawn between China and USA.

While addressing the Asia Society in New York on 20th September, Philippine President Benigno Aquino III referred to the disputed claims at stake by Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam to the oil and gas-rich Spratly islands and said, " It is a perfect flashpoint scenario that could exacerbate if the US and India were drawn into the dispute".

IDU contacted the only officer in New Delhi who is HANDS ON on UNCLOS 1982 having done a course in USA and deals with the subject on a daily basis. He studied the matter and said it was clear that if Block 127/128 which is 140 miles in Phukhanh basin off the Viet Nam coast has Islands in the vicinity which are habited by Chinese then China can claim 200 mile around the islands and as it is also within 200 miles of Viet Nam then Viet Nam also has a claim and median lines will have to be drawn and so IT IS DISPUTED SEAS. China has deployed five hospital ships in area to look after the inhabitants on islands and feels its Chinese territory through history. It is akin to the India Paksitan Sir Creek area and India Bangla Desh Hariganga dispute. No one can drill in the vicinty.

PM Manmohan Singh and MEA knew all along and before PM went to Bali that China and Vietnam have between Hu Jin Tao and Viet Nam's Communist party Chief ten days ago on 12th Nov ago agreed to six measures to resolve issues bilaterally and others with ASEAN agreement to resolve and reduce tensions over their disputed boundaries in the South China Sea. It was agreed that a direct hot-line would be introduced between the two capitals, and twice-yearly discussions would be held to address grievances and resolve differences. The agreements, signed in Beijing 12th November calls for the two sides to seek "basic and long-term solutions for sea-related issues, in the spirit of mutual respect, equal and mutually beneficial treatment."

At Bali PM Wein Bao after PM Manmohan Singh's demarche speaking mildly in the East Asia Summit told all assembled that out side powers should keep out of the South China Sea. IDU was sure China would get in to huddle and think what to do with PM Manmohan Singh's move to threaten publically that India would go ahead with exploration as it was a commercial issue. This seems to have happened.

In a surprise move on 21st Nov , a Chinese official spokesman challenged India's right to prospect in the area, with words, "As for oil and gas exploration activities, our consistent position is that we are opposed to any country engaged in oil and gas exploration and development activities in waters under China's jurisdiction. We hope the foreign countries do not get involved in South China sea dispute". It may be recalled in 2009 a Chinese trawler collided with US Survey Ship Impeccable to ward her off the area and USA protested, but could do little more.

China is now attempting to break India's hold in Maldives by opening an Embassy just when PM Dr Manmohan Singh was present in the country and China hopes to develop the islands of Ihavandhoo and Maarandhoo in the Haa Alif Atoll and seek a lease on Marao island for berthing. India will watch the progress.

The UN Convention for the Laws of the Seas UNCLOS 1982 allows nations oceanic jurisdiction over an Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) upto 200 nautical miles and around islands for fishing, exploration and resources, which is at the heart of the matter. Additionally, 12 miles around a coast is the nation's sovereign territorial waters where warships have to intimate their intent for 'innocent passages' and in some cases like Bangla Desh get permission. India's Maritime Zones Act 1976 states, "Foreign warships including submarines and other underwater vehicles may enter or pass through the territorial waters after giving prior notice to the Central Government". By convention as international law evolves China and other claimants to the South China seas are looking to enforce such intimation for warships and legally control all economic activity such as fishing, seabed mining, oil exploration etc up to 200nm.

Fights over islands which give a nation EEZ is not new, and UNCLOS defines an island where there is human habitation and/or economic activity, otherwise it is a considered a rock with no EEZ. Median lines define the limits of the nation and resolutions of median lines is the challenge in the South China Seas too, as it is for India with Pakistan over the Sir Creek and with Bangla Desh around the disputed Talpatty(Purbasha in Bengali) island, where India had landed a police party but the island is sinking. No wonder, China and other nations in the region are racing to set up habitations on uninhabited islands. Philippines to ensure EEZ claims has named the area as the West Philippines Sea. Surprisingly UK has a small 784 sq metre island, Rockall North East 150 miles in to the Faroes which affords UK a large EEZ and Denmark has staked claim. UK has decided to drop its claims.

Wars and skirmishes have been fought over disputes over island territories and economic exploitation in the EEZ. Britain fought the Argentineans over the Falklands and Iceland in the Cod War. The Japanese claim the Kuriles from Russia, and are in dispute over the uninhabited Senkaku(Diaoyu) islands with China and Taiwan. The Chinese have staked claims over the Paracel and Sprately Islands in the South China Seas, and India will have to decide on a strategy to deal with China's angst and over reach and play the right cards in the South China Sea dispute but not become a pawn.