|
 Let
get real. Iran is a difficult Shia Muslim nation to deal with
but India’s only current link with Afghanistan and Central
Asia is via Iran and Chabahar and then by road, especially
for the $2 bill aid India is pumping in to the area to gain
influence. India gets 14 % of its energy needs from Iran and
this will increase and India pays for that energy through
Turkey which is a silent operator with ambitions of being
the regional Satrap as it has military power, a stable Government
and a good 10% growth economy with PPP at $ 1.3 Trill for
its educated 45 mill fairly modern people and part of NATO.
Recently
Turkey was attempting to broker a pact between Karzai and
Pakistan and possibly the Taliban. In fact few know some piracy
ransoms are paid through Turkey and an Indian operator is
mentioned…….ask those over 100 ship-owners who have
paid ransoms as it is all in cash drops by helicopter or by
plane from Kenya or in Dubai or Djoubiti or via Turkey. So
Iran which is a neighbour of Pakisatan has to be befriended
by India if India knows what is good for it as Szun Zu or
Chankakya’s teachings recommend to protect the nation
and its wealth. But USA and Israel hate Iran and its leaders
Ahmejiidad’s guts and the monkey tricks Iran plays in
Iraq’s Shia area to embarrass US troops. India is a strategic
friends of USA and Israel and cannot afford disruption in
Iran or an attack on Iran’s nuclear facility. But it
is being contemplated. Consequences in the Hormuz can be catastrophic
as per IDU but may be a good way out for USA to piggy back
Israel who always take gambles.
Suddenly
there is a spurt of reports that Iran is going ahead with
nuclear bomb capability. A 7 year old child would have told
you Iran went in for a Nuclear Bomb years ago and took Pakistani
help and decided to eat grass to do it. India secretly decided
to build the bomb, both fission and fusion, to protect itself
from Pakistan and now we say from China. We did this after
Mrs Gandhi exploded a bomb in May 1974 but shrewdly called
it a Peaceful Nuclear Device(PNE) . Iran feels why should
it not follow. Its rich.
The
IAEA report is a strong judgment piercing secrecy surrounding
the Iranian program. It has rekindled a debate among the Western
allies and Israel about whether increased diplomatic pressure,
sanctions, sabotage or military action could stop Iran’s
program. USA
Let
go the STUXNET virus in to Iran’s Siemen’s supplied
centrifuges systems which created havoc an another virus is
ready in USA and Iranians are getting ready for it.
The
report says that Iran had moved far beyond the blackboard
to create computer models of nuclear explosions in 2008 and
2009 and conducted experiments on nuclear triggers. It has
simulated how shock waves from conventional explosives could
compress the spherical fuel at the core of a nuclear device,
which starts the chain reaction that ends in nuclear explosion.
See wmv Attachment.
The
report also said Iran went beyond such theoretical studies
to build a large containment vessel at its Parchin military
base, starting in 2000, for testing the feasibility of such
explosive compression. It called such tests “strong indicators
of possible weapon development.” In India the DRDO’s
ballistic lab does this for India’s nuclear bomb trigger.
The
report does not claim that Iran has mastered all the necessary
technologies, or estimate how long it would take for Iran
to be able to produce a nuclear weapon. Inspectors do not
provide evidence of a fully constructed nuclear weapon or
a lab. IDU says Iran will only stop
- Documents
suggesting that Iran “was working on a project to secure
a source of uranium suitable for use in an undisclosed enrichment
program” to make bomb fuel. AQ Khan story is well known.
Evidence is there that Iran “had been provided with
nuclear explosive design information.”
- Information
that Iran worked on experiments with conventional explosives
to compress metal into an incredibly dense mass suitable
to start a chain reaction.
- Documentation
of “at least 14 progressive design iterations”
for a missile warhead to deliver an atomic warhead to a
distant target.
A
senior Obama administration official briefing reporters on
Tuesday pointed to the I.A.E.A.’s evidence of work on
detonation systems, including a special type of spherical
initiation system that implodes a nuclear core with tremendous
precision.
This
puts India in an awkward situation with USA if it does not
support good relations with Iran and USA needs to be made
to understand
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