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Ranjit B Rai
IDU Update (September 2007)
USA has the
world’s largest Military Industrial Complex MIC and the annual US
Defence Budget is a humongous $ 459 bill, almost half of India’s
GDP. The Republicans have always relied on a weapons driven war
based economy, and is a part of President Bush’s and
Condelezza
Rice’s
hidden agenda. This step has seen
US
economy grow, unmindful of the deficit, which economists argue is
notional, and unlikely to hurt
USA
for many years. Under a "security dialogue to beef up friendly
forces in the Middle East”, the Bush Administration has recently
proposed $63 billion in arms transfers to the Middle East over the
next ten years. The US Congress will debate the issue and it very
likely will be passed, as the MIC lobby in Washington is very
powerful, just as in India are the defence agents. This does not
need elaboration.
The proposals to
arm Middle East include immediate sale of $20 billion worth of
high-tech arms and planes to
Saudi Arabia,
and the other oil-producing states in the Gulf. UAE is receiving
the latest F-16 Block 60 fighters which even USA does not have. US
supplies will comprise of upgrades to US supplied fighter planes
like F-18s and F-16s, AWACS and supply of the latest Lockheed
JSF-35 Lightnings, satellite-guided bombs like the deadly JDAM
and supply of warships, offered to India as well. To allay Israel’s
concerns about this Gulf buildup , the plan calls for increasing the
annual military aid to Israel and Egypt to $3 billion and $1.3
billion per year respectively, which will come from the US
taxpayer’s pocket. USA has steadfastly supported and subsidized
Israel’s
fight against Palestinians’ legitimate demands for a
contiguous state, and has thus fuelled fires in the region,
abetted terrorism unknowingly, and even condoned a recent war
against Hezbollah in Lebanon, where many US weapons were expended.
USA is also set to supply upgraded Patriot PAC missile systems to
Israel which could perhaps lead to increased instability.
The hidden US
rationale appears to be to send a message to Iran that it must bend
to US pressure to end its nuclear program, stop the flow of Iranian
weapons to Iraqi insurgents and cease its support for Hamas and
Hezbollah. Leaders in Tehran face the remote prospect of US
military action, and note that it is going to be surrounded by
neighbors armed with top-of-the-line US weaponry in the years ahead.
Such a scenario is what prompted Pakistan to go nuclear in the late
80s. The Bush Administration's decision to label Iran’s Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps IRGC, as a terrorist organization, is
certainly one that will make Iran harden its stand on nuclear
ambitions.
Iran
seethes with angst to see neighbours Pakistan and India’s nuclear
energy needs and arsenals being encouraged and condoned, and its own
ambitions being thwarted. In the 123 deal, and Hyde act it is
implied US looks to support from India to rein in Iran, despite PM
Manmohan Singh’s remark, “Iran must not be denied legitimate
uranium enrichment ability”. India direly needs Iran’s goodwill for
safe transit of all goods going to Afghanistan worth hundreds of
millions in aid via Chah Bahar, and may need Iran’s gas and
continued friendship. Pakistan’s future political stability is also
in doubt.
At an opportune
juncture if Iran is hemmed further, its leadership could well
walk away from the NPT as North Korea did. Its indigenous nuclear
fuel cycle programme is making headway, thanks to an initial boost
by Dr
AQ Khan’s
supplies for a P-1 uranium enrichment centrifuge, which even India
does not have, to make a crude Uranium device. Iran can then call
USA’s bluff. Iran’s missile force has increased ranges and
lethality, to threaten US Naval ships if they try to blockade the
Straits of Hormuz. In April, the Iranian Navy showed the Royal Navy
its resolve, by holding 15 British sailors in captivity and
extracted an apology. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and
Defense Secretary
Robert
Gates
have tried to argue that the supply of arms would promote
"stability" by bolstering moderate regimes.
All intelligence
reports indicate Iran has enriched uranium for a crude bomb and is
struggling to perfect a nuclear trigger, like India’s DRDO has
achieved. The final clearance of the 123 Nuclear Deal after IAEA
and NSG approvals, may come as an opportune time, for Iran to
strike the iron, and openly declare it has the bomb. This is a
reality. India and Pakistan secretly made the bomb, and Iran has
similar cravings and may succeed, putting India in a precarious
position to rule sanctions as a NPT state when 123 is through.
Pakistan seeks a similar deal with China. Nuclear deterrence may
collapse, and be replaced by nuclear acceptance. The scenario is
plausible and needs thought. |
