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IDU
Report From Inputs on Above Seminar (Subject Defined Below)
Held at Constitution Club By DSA on 4th Nov organized by Publisher
Pawan Agrawal and Gen GD Bakshi with Valuable Inputs From
Cdr PP Batra. Needs Heeding As Ex-Chiefs Spoke Out From Their
Experiences; Normally Classified.
Definition
of Limited War. A war whose objective is of smaller scope
than total defeat of the enemy. A war in which the belligerents
do not seek the total destruction of the enemy, especially
one in which nuclear weapons are deliberately not used.
If South Asia is to follow the stated definition of LIMITED
WAR then in India more, and Pakistan less; it is evident the
two nations have wowed never to fully defeat the other, though
India coldly says it can and it is ready in ‘no first
use’ to obliterate Pakistan if it launches a Nuclear
Attack on India. This warning is India’s DETERRENCE.
Navy even put a Single 300Km Nuclear Dhanush missile on two
OPVs. India says it will suffer less and only maybe Punjab
will get the fallout. IDU was in Germany recently and learnt
the fallout of Chernobyl is still present and Germany is ousting
all nuclear power plants by 2020. Green party and Socialist
Democratic party hopes to oust Merkel and the CDP in 2012.
This conventional and nuclear military capability of India
and Pakistan is therefore a heady mix and is what makes the
Indian Politicians’ job in the CCS and NSC which seldom
meets so difficult to take decisions on India’s holistic
security in peace and war and when attacked as in Parliament
or 26/11 or insurgency in Kashmir. Nation thinks the Military
is impotent.
To add to the confused pot and vested interests there has
been no command and control in India with 7 years with a PM
and a more powerful UPA Chairperson not defined in the Constitution
or war book. Now a Pulak has entered the scene.
India has three voices of Chiefs from their Turfs. Even ACM
PV Naik openly stated India does not need a CDS for 10 years
two days before demitting office. Poor politicians are confused
on CDS and confusion Indians love so we do well with computers.
We have no CDS despite Manekshaw experience of 1971 and Kargil
humiliation though PM as per Art 74 is India’s De-facto
C-In-C with an NSA not in the Constitution as his Deputy CDS
on the subject as the seminar brought out with all nuclear
weapon control which is actually in the hands of Scientists,
and military is not in the loop and we talk of Principles
of War, jointness and application of force eloquently.
This makes the Defence Minister and Defence Secretary act
as the powerful file pushers with control over finances (
and machinations), administration and promotions. India’s
Security System is a heady mix, which one gets to know when
one gets to meet knowledgeable senior foreign serving officers,
intelligence gatherers and most important foreign suppliers
who are supplying $ 40 bill of hardware and soft ware and
goodies to India and in daily touch with India’s Services,
DRDO, MOD, Home Ministry and now with Intelligence Agencies
which are importing away. IDU was impressed to learn the Indian
Army and BSF are buying 50 Riverine Boats from Tampa Florida,
others Solas Marine Dubai/Singapore, Switzerland and France.
Names of Agents are revealed abroad in confidence though not
a single Agent is legally registered but operate. They have
to have informants if $ 40 bill is involved.
The Indian Army has become wieldy and is expanding without
modernization or even increasing its educational level for
the 21st Century bogged in with DOBs, AFSPA, Court Cases galore
and petty issues and knows little or nothing about the Navy’s
40 ship and 40 aircraft acquisitions and nor does the Air
Force but whose acquisitions are easy to follow as it is 126,
C-130, C-17, AEW Embraer, Su-30s. Hakes , loads of Israeli
equipment and soon helicopters and all Indian supplies are
open from HAL.
So this year’s annual Seminar by DSA on LIMITED WARS,
a new academic coinage for many and is subscribed to as war
between India and Pakistan which has been ongoing since 1947
with spurts of intense wars of short durations without declaring
wars, or blockade or breaking diplomatic relations. This is
what makes the subcontinent’s strategy so interesting,
confusing and dangerous as both nations are nuclear powers
without any full disclosure of the capability and no one knows
who holds the Trigger, The Decision Making, the Football with
codes and the knowledge of how to fight a Nuclear War and
how ready “To Go”, both nations one with COLD and
Now FROZEN Start and another with a war on its hands with
USA on one side and terror from Taliban looking for political
power. But Pak trigger is with the military and China.PM Does
not nominate a No2 when away.
India says nuclear war will not happen and Pakistan says it
will happen if you cross the RED LINES which their leaders
have stated and Condi Rice tells us in her book nearly happened
and Misra confirms. Those present at the seminar were
General VP Malik former COAS who heroically fought the Kargil
war after he got back from Poland.
Admiral
Sushil Kumar Former CNS who was Acting COS for Kargil while
Vp was away and played neutral and later COS and became CDS
nominee thanks to George but for IAF opposition.
Air
Chief Marshal Fali Homi former CAS who became CAS despite
the Fighter Pilot Community as they feel only they know how
to Command.
Ambassador
Kanwal Sibal Former Foreign Secretary and Ambassador To Moscow
who like Ronen Sen writes for Russia and Security Issues in
Mail Today like an NSA.
Air
Commodore Jasjit Singh [ Senior Most Strategist of India who
runs a trust on strategy now and Batra says one of the Advisers
to Hon PM on Defence Matters. I hope he is not referring to
a Sikh bias. As if PM and RM listens to any one but latter
only to Keralaites, Ahmed Patel and Sonia it is well known
if you are a Keralite.
Maj
Gen Gagandeep Bakshi ED DSA who is the rising star to wage
war in peace at seminars and on TV.
Batra highlights
Your
graph showing declining use of Divisions in Military Operations
from 3 in 1947-48 to a high of 19 in 1971 and to a zero plateau
in 2001 to 2008. This is the first time I heard that 2001-2
Operation consequent to the attack on the Parliament , as
a 'display of force in being', was classified as Blunder by
Admiral Sushil Kumar. His narration of the CCS Meeting chaired
by the former PM was an eye opener which is reported in media
too as PM Vajpayee spoke in Hindi and Sushil Issac replied
in English IDU gathers.
EX CNS along with other two chiefs, were asked by the then
PM to mobilize forces. When Sushil asked for National Objectives
so that military aims could be formulated, he was told to
proceed. That puts former NSA Mr Brijesh Mishra in poor light
but IDU feels as a politician now he can explain as he and
Vajpayee gave India nuclear status and rsted their oars. PM,
Manmohan it is believed, asked the same question post 26/11
to three Chiefs. All gave pros and cons and there was no one
voice. Every Chief was honest and professional in his advice,
No strike took place. Political Leaders and the Diplomacy
think that military intervention is just like opening or closing
of a water tap. It takes years and decades to build military
forces with AIMS but they feel acquisitions means all. So
what National Security Goals and Policies can one expect from
NETAS and BABUS or the MEA/MOD. General Malik suggested regular
meetings of Chiefs with PM once in 2 months if not every month
as Vajpayee began. But Batra comments Hon PM has time for
only daily intelligence briefings [ about what things he wants
to hear]. IDU learns he sees Chiefs at CCS meetings opposite
the Cabinet but can any Chief speak in one voice there or
give pros and cons as Batra puts it.
Batra who was present feels we must not concentrate only on
hot wars in Iraq and Afghanistan but look at what Pentagon
and the State Department are doing collaterally to face non-state
actor wars. From their permanent bases in Germany and at other
places, they are building up smaller spring bases all over
the world and though they may cut down some expensive bases
in USA and outside but the total number of bases around the
world is up.
Unfortunately our Diplomats who now claim 90% sovereignty
of war by other means to be in their domain refuse to involve
Military ( Excepy Navy) to plan to build in security systems
when acquiring external assets or that for matter internal
right from the stage of negotiations. Mr Kanwal Sibal in his
diplomatic way blamed the shortsightedness of the political
leadership and suggested diplomacy as the main tool for fighting
war by other means. Of course with some examples.
Unfortunately India only moves in emergency and in reactive
mode. Political Parties and the Media spend their energies
fighting each on political platforms and the crucial files
leave their tables if they have feet, like the statutory DOB
file and even the Judiciary activism is never extended to
matters of national military security, rightly or wrongly.
B.. Intervention by Shri Rajeev [ Choudhri, to suggest that
instead of military interventions, why not stop water supplies
to Pakistan during hostile conditions. Post 26/11, all dialogue
with Pakistan was stilled but World Bank anchored Indus Water
Treaty negotiations were on and rightly so. One of the reasons
for China's total take of Tibet and India's Northern areas
is control of water heads as by 2050, water resource would
be one of the three flash ignitions for war. It is another
matter that as part of diplomacy Panditji accepted Chinese
Suzerainty and now Sovereignty over Tibet. But it is India’s
trump card. No PM till date has taken the step to revoke,
even partially despite Chinese continuing grabbing of land
and aggressive trade on unfavorable terms and the political,
commerce and military encirclement of India.
C. Air Commodore Jasjit Singh very ably took all on a tour
of the horizon of this vexed issue. But one point was not
touched upon. Unless a country has its own indigenous arms
and armament industry, it can fight only limited wars. India
has stocks of ordnance and spares for 3 weeks or so. No one
is allowing India to build strategic conventional and nuclear
weapons except a few missiles. . And IDU adds India is not
encouraging private industry or FDI to build our Armament
or Ship Building Industry. This is a pity.
D. Air Chief Marshall Fali Homi Major discourse was largely
parochial. He sort of maintained wars can be won by Air Forces
only, as Air Force always does and cold shoulders the Army
by control of attach helicopters too. But interestingly Fali
emphasized the imperative of jointness and then scuttled by
adding that each service must blossom in its own right. Far
short pitching than integration. One is not sure if it was
meant for uniform or the scribes or our Neta or the Bureaucrats.
E. General Malik very ably chaired the proceedings. Conveyed
very subtly to the Political and the Bureaucratic Leadership
the issues and the way forward. But he joined a BJP think
tank of sorts.
F. Batra says “ Being from the Navy, I liked the former
Navy Chief, Admiral Sushil Kumar, presentation by confining
himself to his experiences which in fact would make us look
events of his time and the military history in a different
light. It needs inner strength. IDU says we all do. Yoga is
recommended.
In Conclusion Batra says. ”So finally where does it leave
us. Same conclusion by every one. Nuclear weapons cannot be
dispensed with and must be aggregated and more importantly
total scaling up of conventional forces in all its dimensions.
However there was not much light on securing increasing demand
for natural resources where ever they exist in the world and
economic and military means and is universal, does not seem
to have been addressed very much. Admittedly it was not within
the purview of the Seminar but then all above discussions
need to have the pyramid base as the center. Well done DSA
from IDU.
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