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India will have "to cope with the Rise of China"
and as the respected journalist and former media adviser to
the PM Dr Manmohan Singh who recently returned from China
Sanjaya Baru stated at a prestigious seminar in New Delhi
on 16th April, "Indians will have to accept China is
miles ahead of India". The only major advantage India
has is its strategic geographic locale jutting into the Indian
Ocean, new friends in the West,a very intelligent though undisciplined
people and a fine expanding Navy which needs nurturing and
is the envy of China.
China's
1st October National Day Parade loaded with military power
on display has been commented upon by the Economist as, "The
world has accepted that China is emerging as a great power;
it is a pity that it still does not always act as one",
and goes on to say, " for many Chinese, daily life remains
a grim struggle, and their government rapacious, arbitrary
and corrupt. Take that spectacular parade. What message was
it meant to convey to an awestruck world? China is a huge,
newly emerging force on the world scene. And it is unapologetically
authoritarian, as were Japan and Prussia, whose rises in the
late 19th century were hardly trouble-free."
In
recent years, a number of analysts have drawn attention to
the similarities of nationalism between the rise of modern
China and the rise of Wilhelmine Germany a century ago. Newsweek's
Fareed Zakaria, commented that "like Germany in the late
19th century, China is also growing rapidly but uncertainly
into a global system in which it feels it deserves more attention
and honor. The Chinese military is a powerful political player,
as was the Prussian officer corps. Like Wilhelmine Germany,
the Chinese regime is trying to hold on to political power
even as it unleashes forces in society that make its control
increasingly shaky."
This
is where India, and Indian Ocean come in. The strategic thinker
Mahan had prophesised that the future of the world in the
21st Century would be decided on the waters of the Indian
Ocean and India's expansion of its maritime power and Navy
and inroads in to the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) is very much
on China's radar. A US researcher from Boston Consulting had
coined China's investment in ports like Gwadar in Pakistan,
Hambantota in Sri Lanka, Sittwe in Mynmar and Chittagong in
Bangla Desh as a 'String of Pearls' to encircle India, noting
the pearls in the string can be increased, and China made
overtures to lease an island in the Seychelles, which India
appears to have thwarted.
The
recent India- China sparring match on intrusions on the border,
issuance of visas on separate paper arbitrarily by the Chinese
Embassy to Kashmiris, and India's service chiefs commenting
on India's order of battle(ORBAT) vis a vis China seems to
be the flavor of the times, and needs to be introspected.
The sparring had actually begun earlier, with the Chinese
Ambassador's orchestrated claims on Arunachal and Tawang,
and China's strong objections in the ADB forum to block India's
developmental loan.
In 2006 Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh speaking at the Commander's
conference , had made a policy statement when he stated, "India's
growing international stature gives it strategic relevance
in the area ranging from the Persian Gulf to the Straits of
Malacca …..India has exploited the fluidities of the
emerging world order to forge new links through a combination
of diplomatic repositioning, economic resurgence and military
firmness". Many dubbed this as India's 'Singh Doctrine',
and China took note of this.
In
May 2009 at the Shangri 'la Dialogue in Singapore, the Chief
of Naval Staff Admiral Sureesh Mehta confirmed the role of
the Indian Navy in the Indian Ocean in his key note address
as, "We see the Indian Navy as a significant stabilising
force in the Indian Ocean region, which safeguards traffic
bound not only for our own ports, but also the flow of hydrocarbons
and strategically important cargo to and from the rest of
the world across the strategic waterways close to our shores…..And
so, the safety of SLOCS will always remain a priority for
India in the foreseeable future.".
Chinese
researchers have taken up the gauntlet to staunchly defend
China's String of Pearls, as small change to developing countries,
since it claims India has built its ports with ADB and World
bank loans, which these countries find difficult to come by.
Chinese naval analyst Zhang Ming recently proclaimed that
the Islands of India's Andaman and Nicobar Archipelago could
be used as a 'metal chain' to block Chinese access to the
Straits of Malacca, and argued that India is building an 'Iron
Curtain' in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), and ganging up
with USA, Japan and Australia in what is called the Quad.
The Japanese used the Andaman and Nicobar islands in the second
world war as airfields for launching strikes, and are strategically
located.
It
is less publicised or talked about, yet the Chinese cite that
in the last two decades India has stealthily strengthened
its involvement in the IOR which includes the islands of Mauritius,
Maldives, Seychelles, Madagascar and Zanzibar and the rim
states of South Africa, Tanzania and Mozambique by very deft
moves in foreign policy, economic sops like the double taxation
exemption with Mauritius, and military inroads. Recently Defence
Minister AK Antony visited Maldives and has promised to set
up a radar chain for the country. This is the classical strategy
of gaining influence by conjoining economic power and perks,
with military diplomacy called 'Showing the Flag', so well
perfected by larger maritime naval powers in the past. In
recent times the Indian Navy has generously transferred offshore
naval patrol vessels, provided staff and training and refit
facilities and most importantly provided free and subsidised
naval hydrographic support to the island nations of the IOR,
which steps have left strategic imprints.
The
Indian Navy has a very sophisticated hydrographic branch with
8 large well equipped survey ships, many survey craft, a large
electronic chart production centre in Dehra Dun and a world
class hydrographic school at Goa which trains several foreign
naval and civilian personnel annually. Much funding for the
Navy's survey vessels has been contributed by the Ministry
of Shipping, which allowed easier induction of latest equipment,
and a swifter procurement route than the cumbersome MOD's
DPP-08. As a silent strategic arm of the nation the Navy's
hydrographic branch has made forays in the IOR to undertake
over a dozen survey assignments for island nations and recently
executed surveys in Oman, and now is set to assist Saudi Arabia,
for which an MOU has been signed. These successes have almost
blocked out the more expensive western navies that had provided
essentially needed hydrographic support to the island nations
with large coast lines and EEZ in the past.
The
Indian Ocean holds immense significance for India's development
in the 21st century and the Chatham House paper states, "India's
strategy is deepening not only commercially but due to concerns
over its security and hegemony in the region, which are underpinned
by India's Maritime Doctrine." The Chinese look at Indian
Navy's gathering of 28 IOR Naval Chiefs including France,
as a riparian state, under one roof at Indian Ocean Naval
Symposium (IONS) in February 2008 in New Delhi and Goa for
a retreat, as ganging up. The next IONS is being hosted by
the UAE in March 2010 and Rear Admiral Ahmed Mohammed Al Sabab
Chief of the UAE Navy and a graduate of the Pakistan Naval
Acadmey who visited India in 2009, and will take over the
Chairmanship. The preparatory meeting was held in Mombasa
from 1st October, 2009.
The
India Brazil South Africa(IBSA) grouping which was designed
for commercial links, provision of energy and other resources
from Africa is viewed by China as another grouping. In recent
times China has taken the lead in what is seen as its 'Scramble
for Africas'for resources, earlier made famous in a book by
that title by Thomas Pakenham. India's maritime military strategy
and the Navy's Maritime doctrine, both issued by the Indian
Navy are clear on the Navy's responsibility for security support
in region. The outgoing Chief of Naval Staff Admiral Sureesh
Mehta made this amply clear at the Shangri'la dialogue stating,
"Concerted efforts at capability enhancement and capacity
building of the smaller countries of the region(IOR), through
active assistance of larger neighbours, would be crucial to
such efforts in the long term".
In
this endeavour, India has a special relationship with Mauritius,
a fulcrum island state because of its strong Indian diaspora
and instituted a favourable taxation treaty that makes it
India's largest offshore investor. The Indian Navy set up
the Mauritius Coast Guard in the 70s and provided ships and
personnel. Mauritius has close security coordination with
India, and Chinese and Pakistan activities in the IOR are
closely monitored by India's intelligence. The India-China
competition to seek influence in the region is set to intensify
as China's cheque book diplomacy currently finds favour in
small African states and in Sudan and Zimbabwe. Deng's philosophy
of ' the colour of the cat does not matter as long as it catches
rats', is still relevant.
When
the IOR-ARC, the Arrangement for Regional Cooperation was
formed Mauritius, Madagascar and Mozambique supported India's
move to block Pakistan's membership and later China's access
to IBSA, though Pakistan is a full member of IONS. The Indian
Navy has also made in roads to gain over flying and berthing
rights in Oman which holds a strategic position especially
for the fight against piracy off the Gulf of Aden, and from
where India can closely monitors the SLOCs of Hormuz and Aden.
India has signed to provide piracy patrols to Mozambique and
it was also reported India has established a listening post
in Madagascar in 2007. Chinese highlight these issues.
India's
maritime swath is from Aden, the Straits of Hormuz to the
Strait of Malacca as a region of its watch, and Mahan appears
to have seen the coming importance of this region which provides
70% of the world's hydro carbons. K Santhanam former Director
of the Institute of Defence Studies and Analysis(IDSA) and
one of the architects of India's nuclear programme as the
Project Director of India's 1998 nuclear blasts, with a back
ground in intelligence and nuclear science, has coined the
C3I theory for India- China relations and needs heeding. He
is convinced India and China will seek cooperation as China
has become India's largest trade partner totting up $ 40 bill,
and yet will always be in competition for markets and influence,
and in the future confrontation cannot be ruled out if both
nations' interests clash. This writer feels the world has
to be prepared for that contingency as nation's juggle to
balance China and India, both growing economic powers, in
their overall relations. In this matrix Santhanam avers Intelligence
which includes cyber warfare will play a major role to ensure
which nation succeeds better to gain influence, hence Santhanam's
C3I theory of cooperation, competition and possible confrontation
is eye opening for strategic gazers of the scenario. In this
matrix the China- Pakistan nexus and the future of Afghanistan
where India has interests is also a muddied by military operations
against the Taliban and Al Queda.
China
also has a 'Malacca Dilemma', and contributes generously to
the Tripartite Technical Expert Group (TTEG) of Malaysia,
Indonesia and Singapore that control the Malacca Straits.
India too has contributed $ 1.2 million as a response, and
advanced $ 774,000 to TTEG on 31st March, 2009. What has irked
the Chinese is the Indian Navy's offer to survey wrecks in
the Malacca Straits which has been accepted by the TTEG .
India looks at hydrographic assistance as a cooperative measure,
while China sees this as strategic move by India by its hydrographic
prowess, which has notched up successes.
The Chinese
and Indian swords are sheathed for the time being, but could
be out and India has to be prepared for the String of Pearls
vs the Iron Curtain debate in what Santhnam has coined as
C3I, for it was Chi Haotin who had said, "Indian Ocean
is not India's Ocean". As the Chinese say never dig a
spear in to the Dragon's eye. India will have to cope, and
add a C to the C3I. Both nations have internal challenges
of rampant poverty, and it is also been said, India is like
boiling water. Steam and froth on top but rather calm below.
China is like boiling oil, calm above but violent and seething
below. If and when an eruption does takes place in any nation,
it could be violent. The jury is still not out whether the
Chinese top down approach is superior to India's rather slower,
democratic and consensual approach.
(Cmde
(retd) Ranjit B Rai attended Royal Naval Staff College and
is former Director Naval Intelligence and Operations of the
Indian Navy and author of a Nation and its Navy At War. He
visited China recently on a research trip.)
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